Strait of Hormuz Blockade Pushes Global Oil Inventories Toward Operational Minimum

Incident: Since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in late March 2026, around 20% of global oil trade (approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil per day) has been disrupted. Global oil inventories are plummeting at a rate of 4.5 to 11 million barrels daily, rapidly approaching the operational minimum required to sustain normal energy system operations.

Severity: OECD commercial crude oil inventories can only meet refining demand for 30 days, equivalent to 842 million barrels. During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, OECD oil inventories stood at about 968 million barrels, covering 27 days of demand. The current supply shock is far more severe.

Mid-May to June: Inventories may officially fall below the operational minimum, tipping the market into an imbalance of high prices forcing demand destruction.

September: Inventory coverage may hit the engineering critical limit of 24 days, raising risks of energy system breakdown and global economic depression.

Inference & Conclusion: Even if the strait reopens, governments and enterprises will rush to replenish inventories simultaneously, which will further drive up oil prices.Brent crude oil is currently priced at $100–115 per barrel. Should the blockade persist, prices may surpass $130 in June and test $150 by year-end.September will act as a critical deadline: the strait may be forced to reopen; otherwise, the world will face energy system collapse and a global economic recession.